I'm gonna go out on a limb here.

I'm predicting that Bareback, I mean, Brokeback Mountain will win the Oscar for Best Picture, Ang Lee will win for Best Director, The writers will win for best sreenplay, the cinemaphotographers will win, the editor will win and the score will win because it would be politically incorrect to vote against it. Everyone will show their acceptance of the Gay lifestyle by voting for it.

Lesse, Bareback Mountain, uh, I mean, Brokeback Mountain swept the Golden Globes. Swept the SAG awards. Ang Lee won a special award in Sundance. It's been nominated for the Bafta Film Awards in the UK. According to the IMDB, its won American Cinema Editors Award, American Society of Cinemaphotographer awards, Boston Society of Film Critics Award, Broadcast Film Critics Awards, Film Critics Awards in Ohio, Chicago and dallas-Fort Worth, and many many other nominations. Here's the full list of awards and nominations over at IMDB.

But I don't think any of the actors nominated will win. The Academy will find the writer, director, cinematographer, editor, and composer exceptionally brave for dealing with a sensitive and timely topic. But actors have been and been portraying gay characters from the beginning of film. No new ground is being broken there. So, while the film as a whole, the film as a concept, is going to win, the actors? Not so much.